Pls see below my portfolio (limited to those stocks which constitute at least 1.5% of the portfolio):
% of Portfolio
As before, for Canfin Homes, KRBL, Shilpa and Bajaj Finserv, the % gain is after including profits on sales carried out.
The only sales since the last portfolio disclosure have been in EClerx. This has primarily to do with the rise in the price due to Buyback announcement. I fully intend to purchase back the stock once the buyback record date is over.
There has been a sharp rise in the price of Oberoi Realty, IDFC Bank and IDFC. This accounts for the relative percentage increase. Similarly, there has been muted performance in Balkrishna Tyres. All of these are long term stocks, so the relative performance is not, per se, especially interesting.
My trading performance since August 2017 has been nothing short of disastrous. While I am still ahead for the year, at this point, had the same capital been invested in stocks, I might well be ahead. However, that is in the nature of the trading game. Most of the time, the returns are below the peak returns, and in addition, there are often sharp drawdowns in this business. This is where mindset, stoicism and capital come into play. I like to think that I have these in abundance. Then it is only a game of waiting. Markets will give you a sharp break on either side, which will develop into a nice trend to capture profits. It just requires the patience to hold on, till the ride comes along. But I can see why many people don’t succeed here.
December 2017 was a great month for markets, especially in the small and midcap segment. The portfolio as a whole continues with its underperformance of the small and midcap space, and its outperformance of the large cap space. Financials did not have a great time in December, and given the high weight of financials in the portfolio, some level of underperformance was to be expected.
The SBI Small and Midcap Fund has a complete blowout. Even the Centrum PMS had a blowout month, with the result that its performance almost caught up with my portfolio returns.
Here is a graphical representation of the monthly returns:
Following is the same thing in the form of a table:
My current portfolio is extremely diversified, but the top holdings (which constitute approx 80% of the total portfolio) is disclosed here.
Pls note that the total return here does not include dividends. In a few stocks-NMDC, AkzoNobel and HindZinc, accounting for dividends would have changed the return considerably.
In a few stocks, the purchase value is reduced by the profit booked. This is true of CanFin Homes, Shilpa Medicare, Bajaj Finserve and KRBL. This is why the return seems absurd. In any case, each of the stocks has returned around 10-15X, even if I don’t account for profits booked.
Trading Performance in November 2017 was on the muted side. The last three months have not been great for my trading performance, which has actually been negative, and substantially so, even though markets have been positive. Over the year, returns are a fabulous 150% on my invested capital. These large fluctuations in trading returns are a function of the trading systems I use. In fact, in November, trading the stock markets has not been that bad, but commodities have given horrendous returns, which has led to a low performance overall.
I am now trying to introduce options into the mix, and in November, I had a profitable month trading options. I have still not deployed substantial capital for options trading, but I will over a period of time.
Here is a table of my trading performance(as well as investment performance) for the month of Nov 2017, and for longer periods:
November was not a great month for markets. The Nifty actually declined slightly, while the broader indices were in the green, but just so. Portfolio investment performance was similarly muted, with the portfolio having returned just 2.77%. It has been more than a year since I started keeping track, and the overall returns for the year till Nov 2017 have been 37.66%. It seems optically great till one considers that Nov 2016 had the demonetization even and subsequent sharp fall. So comparisions are bound to be favorable. Also, one has to consider that the SBI Small and Midcap Fund returned 61.12% during the same period. So good portfolio performance, but not great.
One swallow does not make a summer, and so also 1 year does not represent a lifetime of investment returns. It gives only a snapshot of lifetime performance, and it does not say anything about the risks taken to derive the investment returns. Nor does it say anything about the future course of returns. However, as we keep up this exercise of tabulating returns, month after month, for several years, hopefully, we will be able to derive some conclusions.
In the meantime, I am sticking to my general investment style. Low churn, buy low valuations, catch falling knives when the company’s survival is not at risk. Keep a trend towards concentration.
What can say about a year’s returns? My portfolio outperformed all the indices I track, as well as the HDFC Top 200 Fund. My portfolio also outperformed the two PMS schemes by a considerable margin. And the portfolio grossly underperformed the SBI Small and Midcap Fund. It has been a great run for small and midcap stocks. However, we will see how these perform as time passes.
Here is a graph of the returns:
A table representing the same data is part of the next post, which will talk about trading returns.
October 2017 was not good for my trading activity. The market kept whipsawing between rises and falls, and though the Bank Nifty on which I primarily trade went up 4 % in the month, I suffered a considerable drawdown.
Here is a table showing my trading performance relative to other benchmarks.
As you can see, my trading performance has resulted in a nearly 25% fall in the overall return in the last 3 months, of which 14% was in October alone. I do hope the tide changes soon.
Overall though, I am still ahead of all other benchmarks for the year. This is the nature of the trend following trading game. Huge outperformance for brief periods, and then steady attrition in returns for long periods. Hopefully, it means that you come out ahead of the investment pack in the long run.
However this large volatality in trading returns makes me more and more inclined to include options strategies as part of the trading mix. i am currently engaged in developing the technical expertise to analyse and develop Options Trading Strategies. It will take a long time, perhaps as long as a year or two. But I convinced that that is the way to go.
Here I am with another edition of my investment performance. This was a month in which the market, especially, Small and Midcap Stocks went up considerably, after a relatively muted August and September.
While the markets were strong, my own stocks did only ok. IDFC and IDFC Bank continued to do poorly, while certain other stocks, like CanFin Homes, EClerx and Ajanta also did poorly. On the other hand, Oberoi Realty, which is by far my biggest holding, did fine, and so did Bajaj Finserve/ A whole host of smaller holdings, like DCM Shriram, BKT, Indiabulls Housing Finance also did well.
Overall, of all the benchmarks, my porfolio did marginally worse than the Midcap Index, and considerably worse than the SBI Small and Midcap Fund, which had a blowout performance. Otherwise, on both a monthly and yearly basis, my investment performance was marginally better than the performance of the HDFC Top 200 fund, and was considerably better than the indices as well as both the PMS schemes I own, the MOSL “Value Strategy” fund, as well as the Centrum Deep Value Fund. One must wonder why anyone should invest in these PMS’s and give managers a fee, when one can have a reasonable portfolio and do considerably better.
The Yo-Yo of markets during the month was not at all good for performance of my trading activity in September. I use mostly trend following strategies, across different time frames, and sideways markets did not do much for the returns from trading activities, and in fact, there was capital loss.
I am still up for the financial year, and quite well. But the whole situation is testing my patience now. These are the periods when stoicism is valuable as a philosophy, and I am as stoic as they come. So we will continue the same, no matter what the state of my patience.
September 2017 was a time when markets took a small pause. All indices took a small hit over the values of end-A
ugust 2017, and were even more down compared with end-July 2017. Midcaps and small caps till better than large caps.
Accordingly, my investment performance also suffered, though I still managed to eke out a postive return for the month. This is primarily due to the higher contribution of midcap and small cap stocks in my portfolio.
The SBI Small and Midcap Fund was the standout for the month, rising more than 5% in a month. So was the Centrum PMS. Both of these did better than my own investments. Centrum PMS came back to life after a nice break. The Motilal Oswal PMS continues to languish. September was also not a good month for the HDFC Top 200 fund.
Here is a graphical representation of the above. As time goes on, clearly, the men are getting separated from the boys.
And for those who prefer numbers, here is the same data in numerical format.